Projections and Trends

Note: publications are in date of release order.

Featured Publication

Information sheet 35 - Air transport service trends in regional Australia (2009 update)
Information sheet 35 - Air transport service trends in regional Australia (2009 update) July 2009
This information sheet provides key trends of air transport services in regional Australia from 1984 to 2008, updating figures previously published in Air Transport Services in Regional Australia: Trends and Access, Report 115 (BITRE 2008) with new data from 2006 to 2008.

Information Sheet 30: Fuel Consumption by New Passenger Vehicles in Australia 1979-2008August 2009
BITRE has examined trends in the fuel consumption of new passenger vehicles sold in Australia. Up to 2001, technological advances in engine technology, which improved fuel efficiency, were offset by increases in power, weight and the popularity of 4WD vehicles. Since 2001 the overall trend in fuel consumption has continued to decrease with average new light vehicle fuel consumption down 8.4 per cent to 8.14 litres per 100 kilometres (L/100 km).
Working Paper 75 - National road network intercity traffic projections to 2030March 2009
This report provides long-term passenger and freight vehicle traffic projections
for intercity corridors of the National Land Transport Network (NLTN)
between 2005 and 2030.
How do fuel use and emissions respond to price changes? Briefing - 1August 2008
The first in a new series of BITRE publications, this briefing reviews the responses that have been seen in Australian transport to recent fuel price rises (vehicle sales moving to smaller, more fuel efficient cars, more urban public transport, etc). The responsiveness of the various transport sectors is reviewed, as is the responsiveness of Australia relative to the United States.
Report 115: Air transport services in regional Australia: trends and accessJuly 2008
By amalgamating and optimising existing information, regional aviation data were collated for the first time into comprehensive time series statistics using a geographical approach. The report used the constructed database to showcase analyses on several aspects of the regional aviation industry over time. It provides comprehensive data analyses of regional aviation trends, geospatial analyses on the accessibility of regional air services, projections of future regional aviation trends, and explorations of possible associations between key socio-demographic factors and the level of access to air services in regional communities.

Through the development of a consistent historical database for regional aviation,this study establishes a platform for more future research in regional aviation. The database offers flexibility to conduct various cross sectional or time series analyses; potentially in conjunction with other data sources.
Working paper 72: Air passenger movements through capital city airports to 2025 - 26June 2008
This report presents the forecasts of passenger and aircraft traffic at capital city airports over the next 20 years. The forecasts have been developed on the basis of the estimated econometric models of passenger demand and the most recent economic outlook for Australia and its major trading partners. Australia's eight capital city airports (Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney) are included in the development of the forecasts.
Working Paper 71 - Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian citiesJune 2007
This report presents the results of a BTRE study to identify long-term trends in urban traffic growth, to estimate the consequent impacts of that traffic growth on urban congestion levels, and to attempt a suitable quantification of the social costs arising from those congestion levels.
National Guidelines for Transport System Management in AustraliaFebruary 2007
This second edition of the Guidelines has been produced by the GIC in response to the directive of the ATC. The Guidelines have been restructured to make them more concise, accessible and user-friendly, while maintaining rigour. The Guidelines have also been extended to urban transport.
Working Paper 65 - Container and Ship Movements Through Australian Ports 2004-05 to 2024-25December 2006
This report presents the national and port level forecasts of container and ship movements through Australian ports over the next twenty years. The forecasts have been developed on the basis of the estimated econometric models of export and import demand and the most recent economic outlook for Australia and its major trading partners.
Report 112: Freight Measurement and Modelling in AustraliaMarch 2006
Consistent time series estimates of freight carriage in Australia must be constructed from disparate data sources. This report aims to construct consistent time series datasets on as many Australian freight sectors as possible.
Working Paper 66 - Demand Projections for Auslink Non-Urban Corridors: Methodology and Projections.February 2006
This report outlines the BTRE OZPASS and FreightSim models, which are designed to project future non-urban passenger travel and freight movements, and presents a base case set of traffic growth projections across the non-urban links of the AusLink National Network.
Working Paper 62 - Modelling Responses of Urban Freight Patterns to Greenhouse Gas Abatement ScenariosOctober 2004
This paper presents the results of applying a policy model to simulate the effects on greenhouse gas emissions from trucking in Sydney of various abatement scenarios. These include vehicle efficiency scenarios, traffic efficiency scenarios and alternative infrastructure and land use scenarios.
Working Paper 51 - Regional Public Transport In Australia: Long-Distance Services, Trends And ProjectionsMarch 2003
Regional public transport plays an important role in meeting the needs of Australians living in regional and remote areas for access to essential services and for mobility. This paper provides information on long-distance regional public transport services in Australia, and includes a snapshot of all such services across Australia in 2000-01 and the level of demand and characteristics of regional passenger travel in 1999-2000. The report also provides projections of likely future long-term trends in regional passenger travel. A companion paper, Regional public transport in Australia: Economic regulation and assistance measures (Working Paper 54), provides information on the regulatory arrangements and assistance measures relating to regional public transport.
Report 107: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transport: Australian Trends to 2020November 2002
This report presents the results of a BTRE study to update base case (or 'business-as-usual') projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector.
Working Paper 50 - Australia's Seaborne Containerised Freight: Forecasts to 2010-11August 2002
This study analyses and forecasts trends in the usage of containers for the carriage of Australia's seaborne freight over the period 2001-02 to 2010-11. The study also estimates the proportion of 40-foot containers used in Australia's inbound and outbound seaborne trade and assesses the implications of their increasing use over time.
Information Sheet 15 - Trends in Trucks and TrafficOctober 1999
Increasingly in Australia, trucking is an essential feature of economic activity, with road being the only mode possible for much freight traffic (eg in cities), and with rail tending to be less competitive than road on many intercity links.
Information Sheet 14 - Urban Transport: Looking AheadAugust 1999
Australian cities have been transformed from fairly tightly knit core-and-spoke configurations, to sprawling suburban low-density configurations. This transformation of urban land use has been accompanied and made possible by a rapid improvement and spread of the road system, and an even more rapid expansion in per person car ownership.
Working Paper 38 - Forecasting Light Vehicle TrafficOctober 1998
The Bureau of Transport Economics has developed and applied methods for forecasting light vehicle traffic on the nation's roads. This paper describes the methods and provides estimates and projections of light vehicle traffic within major Australian cities and on Australia's principal non-urban highways.
Working Paper 39 - Urban Transport Models: A ReviewOctober 1998
Transport models have been used for several decades now, both for research, and as an analytical tool to assist planners and decision-makers. To assist both researchers and decision-makers, Dr William (Weiguo) Lu has dissected the major models that have been used to analyse urban transport tasks. This Working Paper therefore represents something of a 'scene-setter' for further work.
Working Paper 35 - Roads 2020October 1997
Using the Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics' Road Infrastructure Assessment Model (RIAM), the Roads 2020 study makes forecasts at a strategic level of expenditure needs for investment and maintenance between 1998 and 2005 and between 2005 and 2020.
Working Paper 32 - Roads, Vehicle Performance and Greenhouse: Costs and Emission Benefits of Smoother HighwaysMay 1997
Previous BTCE work (Report 94) has established that reductions in pavement roughness reduce fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions (end-use only) and vehicle operating costs. This Paper evaluates the effects on greenhouse gas emissions and vehicle operating costs of reducing the roughness of the National Highway System and the Pacific Highway over the period 1996-2015. The analysis takes account of the emissions involved in the production, transport and application of road rehabilitation materials. Some results of case studies of recently completed highway rehabilitation projects are included in the Paper.
Working Paper 24 - Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Cars: an Application of the BTCE CARMOD ModelApril 1996
Policy instruments evaluated in this working paper are the accelerated implementation of fuel efficiency technology for new cars, the accelerated scrappage of highly polluting vehicles, tighter emission standards for new cars, and mandatory regular tuning of vehicles. Analysis of such policy options relies on the CARMOD model of the dynamics of the Australian car fleet.
Working Paper 22 - Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Road Freight Vehicles: An Application of the BTCE TRUCKMOD ModelMarch 1996
TRUCKMOD is BTCE's model of the Australian road freight vehicle fleet. It was designed principally to estimate the dynamic effects of policies that alter the distribution of the vehicle task. As far as the BTCE is aware this is the first vintage specific model of the road freight vehicle fleet in Australia. The model covers the period 1991 to 2015.
Report 94: Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and Options for Reducing EmissionsMarch 1996
Despite popular interest in the contribution of transport to emissions of greenhouse gases, little comprehensive information has been published to date on the costs and effectiveness of the various abatement measures espoused.
Report 88: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Long Term ProjectionsMarch 1995
This Report provides a 'business as usual' scenario for the emission of greenhouse gases from the Australian transport sector for the period 1993-94 to 2014-15. Models for emissions from cars, trucks, rail, sea and air transport reflect sectoral activity, fuel intensity and emission intensity factors. The models indicate that emissions from the Australian car fleet over the next two decades will decline while emissions from trucks and aircraft are likely to grow quite strongly. Background information and historical data series are also provided.
Working Paper 3 - Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Transport: Some Tax Policy OptionsOctober 1991
This Paper provides an examination of three tax policy options. The options relate to taxation of business cars, vehicle sales tax and registration charges, and a carbon tax on transport fuel.
Working Paper 2 - Short Term Forecasting of Transport and Communications ActivityJuly 1991
This Paper provides a description of the short-term forecasting models used in the Bureau's quarterly publication - Transport and Communications Indicators. For domestic freight, four models cover intercapital road freight, non-bulk government rail freight, bulk government rail freight and domestic air freight. Urban freight activity is not covered. For overseas trade there are also four models: bulk export tonnages, non-bulk import tonnages, air freight exports and air freight imports.
Working Paper 1 - Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Australian TransportMay 1991
The Paper details emissions from various segments of the transport sector, discusses the magnitude of the task involved in reducing transport emissions, and examines the potential for reducing them by alternative means. These include fuel economy improvements, use of alternative fuels, transport system improvements including modal shift, and reductions in discretionary travel.
Occasional paper 103 - Demand Forecasts and Demand Elasticities for Australian Transport FuelFebruary 1991
The study focuses on the current major transport fuels, which in 1988-89 accounted for 93 per cent of Australia's transport sector energy consumption: petrol (leaded and unleaded), automotive diesel oil, fuel oil and aviation turbine fuel. Major demand forecasts examined include those of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research and the Australian Institute of Petroleum, based on forecasts by oil companies, to the year 2000. From an examination of these forecasts and derived own-price elasticities, the study concludes that only relatively large increases in fuel prices are likely to produce anything more than non-marginal reductionsin the levels of fuel demand.
Occasional Paper 81 - Number Plate Survey Methodology for Long - Distance Traffic FlowsApril 1987
The lack of comprehensive data on transport operations is a long- standing problem in transport research. Information on road transport in particular has proved difficult to obtain. This Paper documents a study which was aimed at developing and testing a technique to estimate long-distance passenger and freight movements based on direct observation of vehicle movements.
Occasional Paper 79 - Demand for Australian Domestic Aviation Services: Forecasts by Market SegmentMay 1986
This Paper examines the demand for air travel in Australia and forecasts domestic passenger and freight aviation demand to the end of the century at five-year intervals. The analysis begins by reviewing recent trends in patronage and air fares. It then identifies other major factors affecting demand as background for the empirical analysis. The study period for the empirical analysis covers the past eight years, 1977 to 1984, using quarterly data. The models provide, among other things, estimates of price and income elasticities of demand (or demand responses) for air travel in Australia. Finally, the Paper presents forecast growth rates for air travel subject to different future growth scenarios to the year 2000.
Occasional Paper 14 - Model for Medium Term Economic Forecasting: Projections of Australian Income and ExpenditureDecember 1977
This paper describes an econometric model designed for Australian economic forecasting in the medium term (from 5 to 10 years). The paper also gives the results of applying the model to predict annual national expenditure and product, in the aggregate and by main components, over the period 1976 to 1983.
Report 5: Perth Fremantle Corridor StudyOctober 1972
This Report presents the evaluations of alternative public transport improvements in the urban corridor between Perth and Fremantle. The alternatives considered are a continuation of existing services, electrification of the existing rail service, and replacement of the railway with a busway.

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Last Updated: 03 September 2008
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